Union Berlin 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 40%, yet in-form 1899 Hoffenheim provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Union Berlin welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. 1899 Hoffenheim are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 2 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 38% and 1899 Hoffenheim 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 43% | 1899 Hoffenheim 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.73 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.888 / defence 0.936 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.034 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.591. Data: 37 Union Berlin games / 37 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 40% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 33%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1899 Hoffenheim (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 50% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 40% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Union Berlin 1.73 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.888 / def 0.936 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.034 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.591 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.54
1899 Hoffenheim xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 40% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (6 meetings): Union Berlin 3W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against 1899 Hoffenheim's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
40%
2.47
27%
3.70
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.27
1.54
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.54 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin come into this having played 37 games, going 10W 8D 19L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.32 PPG from 37 outings (14W 7D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.03 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union Berlin's home form reads 8W 2D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (7W 2D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.92 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 86%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 10W 8D 19L in their last 37 games (1.03 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 14W 7D 16L in their last 37 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.44 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: 1899 Hoffenheim have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when Union Berlin won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
1
Draws
4
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 44%, 1899 Hoffenheim 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Union Berlin and 89% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 72% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Union Berlin's games and 83% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Union Berlin's matches and 89% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.73 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.54 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 40% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 33%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 43%, 1899 Hoffenheim 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.03 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.