SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Hertha BSC travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 3D 5L at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) versus 1.00 (Hertha BSC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for Hertha BSC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% and Hertha BSC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% | Hertha BSC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and Hertha BSC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.685 / defence 1.132 | Hertha BSC attack 0.750 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.362. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 55 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39% | Draw 32% | Hertha BSC 29%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Hertha BSC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Hertha BSC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39% | Draw 32% | Hertha BSC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 / Hertha BSC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.685 / def 1.132 | Hertha BSC attack 0.750 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Hertha BSC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 39% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.69) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
39%
2.53
32%
3.17
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.53
1.16
Hertha BSC xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.16 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 2W 4D 15L from 21 games, a 0.48 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 10L across 21 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hertha BSC by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 2W 3D 5L from 10 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.48 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.10 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 4D 15L in their last 21 games (0.48 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hertha BSC away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.90 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hertha BSC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
5
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%, Hertha BSC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 70% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 40% of games; Hertha BSC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 40% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 70% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out Hertha BSC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hertha BSC 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and Hertha BSC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.69 / defence 1.13 against Hertha BSC attack 0.75 / defence 1.16, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39% | Draw 32% | Hertha BSC 29%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71%, Hertha BSC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.48. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.