SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Eintracht Frankfurt to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 home games — 0.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Eintracht Frankfurt's 0.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% and Eintracht Frankfurt 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.588 / defence 1.205 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.006 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.229. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.588 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 44 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 31% | Eintracht Frankfurt 45%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.22. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 31% | Eintracht Frankfurt 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.588 / def 1.205 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.006 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.59) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
24%
4.22
31%
3.18
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.53
1.49
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
5%
18.71
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.49 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 10 games, going 0W 1D 9L for 0.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt sit at 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Frankfurt have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 games (0.10 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.25 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
1
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%, Eintracht Frankfurt 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 25% for Eintracht Frankfurt.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 25% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.59 / defence 1.21 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 31% | Eintracht Frankfurt 45%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70%, Eintracht Frankfurt 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 0.90 PPG against 0.10. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.