SC Freiburg 0-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees RB Leipzig travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 6W 3D 1L at Europa-Park Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
RB Leipzig's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.90 PPG versus RB Leipzig's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 for RB Leipzig and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with RB Leipzig winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 58% versus RB Leipzig 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 58% | RB Leipzig 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.32 xG and RB Leipzig 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.006 / defence 0.798 | RB Leipzig attack 0.966 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.284. RB Leipzig's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SC Freiburg's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 SC Freiburg games / 64 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 34% | RB Leipzig 25%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | RB Leipzig 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SC Freiburg 70% | RB Leipzig 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 34% | RB Leipzig 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG SC Freiburg 1.32 / RB Leipzig 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.006 / def 0.798 | RB Leipzig attack 0.966 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.99
RB Leipzig xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
SC Freiburg 0 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 41% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
Record (3 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 2 | RB Leipzig 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.01) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
41%
2.43
34%
2.95
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.31
0.99
RB Leipzig xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.99 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 31W 18D 15L from 64 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 33W 13D 18L across 64 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.73 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 17W 9D 6L from 32 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 11W 9D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.97 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 31W 18D 15L in their last 64 games (1.73 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 33W 13D 18L in their last 64 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.88 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.31 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 66%, RB Leipzig 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (SC Freiburg) and 47% (RB Leipzig).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of SC Freiburg's games and 59% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 47% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RB Leipzig defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat SC Freiburg 0-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.32 xG and RB Leipzig 0.99 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.01 / defence 0.80 against RB Leipzig attack 0.97 / defence 0.77, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 34% | RB Leipzig 25%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a RB Leipzig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 58%, RB Leipzig 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.73 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.