SC Freiburg 2-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Hamburger SV at Europa-Park-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Freiburg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park-Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SC Freiburg) versus 1.10 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Hamburger SV trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 59% and Hamburger SV 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 67% | Hamburger SV 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.41 xG and Hamburger SV 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.135 / defence 0.894 | Hamburger SV attack 0.614 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.439. Hamburger SV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 SC Freiburg games / 15 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 72% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 9%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Hamburger SV 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 90% | Hamburger SV 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 72% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 51% | xG SC Freiburg 2.41 / Hamburger SV 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.135 / def 0.894 | Hamburger SV attack 0.614 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Hamburger SV xG
51%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV part of?
SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 72% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.41. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
72%
1.39
19%
5.37
9%
10.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.20
0.79
Hamburger SV xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
10.75
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
9%
11.09
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
1%
119.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.79 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Freiburg come into this having played 49 games, going 21W 12D 16L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.53 PPG from 49 outings (20W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.53 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SC Freiburg's home form reads 12W 6D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.92 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 21W 12D 16L in their last 49 games (1.53 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 20W 15D 14L in their last 49 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Hamburger SV away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.75 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.25 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hamburger SV 3-2 SC Freiburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 75%, Hamburger SV at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for SC Freiburg and 71% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SC Freiburg's games and 58% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of SC Freiburg's matches and 71% of Hamburger SV's.
Do SC Freiburg and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Hamburger SV 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Hamburger SV 2-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.41 xG and Hamburger SV 0.79 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Hamburger SV attack 0.61 / defence 1.30, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 72% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 9%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 67%, Hamburger SV 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.53 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.