SC Freiburg 0-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Eintracht Frankfurt at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 60% and Eintracht Frankfurt 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 62% | Eintracht Frankfurt 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.82 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.037 / defence 0.940 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.057 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.176. Data: 45 SC Freiburg games / 45 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 50% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 22%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4.55. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 50% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Freiburg 1.82 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.037 / def 0.940 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.057 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
SC Freiburg 0 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 50% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.63
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.99
1.17
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
4%
28.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.17 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 18W 13D 14L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 18W 18D 9L from 45 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.49 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (10W 8D 4L).
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 7W 7D 8L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.80 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 82%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 18W 13D 14L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 18W 18D 9L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.73 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
4
Draws
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 68%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for SC Freiburg and 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SC Freiburg's games and 77% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SC Freiburg's matches and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg 0-2 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.82 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.17 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 50% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 22%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Frankfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, Eintracht Frankfurt 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.49 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.