RB Leipzig 3-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host VfB Stuttgart at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Leipzig have posted 5W 3D 2L at Red Bull Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RB Leipzig at 2.00 PPG versus VfB Stuttgart's 2.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. RB Leipzig register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for RB Leipzig, 3 for VfB Stuttgart and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
RB Leipzig trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 50% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 55% | VfB Stuttgart 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.74 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.195 / defence 0.931 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.104 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.523. Data: 42 RB Leipzig games / 42 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 42% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 35%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | VfB Stuttgart 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 80% | VfB Stuttgart 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 42% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG RB Leipzig 1.74 / VfB Stuttgart 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.195 / def 0.931 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.104 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.56
VfB Stuttgart xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
RB Leipzig 3 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 42% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (8 meetings): RB Leipzig 4W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
42%
2.36
23%
4.37
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.31
1.56
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
6%
16.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.56 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RB Leipzig's recent record stands at 19W 13D 10L from 42 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 14L across 42 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Leipzig on 1.67 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RB Leipzig have managed 11W 6D 3L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 9W 6D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.83 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 19W 13D 10L in their last 42 games (1.67 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 20W 8D 14L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
RB Leipzig's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 1.95 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.65 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2021, when RB Leipzig won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
RB Leipzig
1
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 5, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 65%, VfB Stuttgart 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for RB Leipzig and 70% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of RB Leipzig's games and 60% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of RB Leipzig's matches and 70% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat VfB Stuttgart 3-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.74 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.56 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RB Leipzig beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 42% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 35%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 55%, VfB Stuttgart 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.67 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.