RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as RB Leipzig welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Red Bull Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, RB Leipzig have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's home record at Red Bull Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — RB Leipzig are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (RB Leipzig) versus 1.70 (Bayer Leverkusen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 50% versus Bayer Leverkusen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.83 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.331 / defence 0.881 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.340 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.239. RB Leipzig carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 RB Leipzig games / 46 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 44% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 29%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RB Leipzig 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 44% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG RB Leipzig 1.83 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.331 / def 0.881 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.340 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Bayer Leverkusen xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen?
RB Leipzig 1 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 44% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RB Leipzig's attack at 1.33x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.69
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.30
1.46
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
5%
21.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.46 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, RB Leipzig have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 24W 11D 11L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 20W 13D 13L from 46 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Leipzig on 1.80 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, RB Leipzig have posted 2.26 PPG from 23 outings (16W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — RB Leipzig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 9W 8D 6L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.70 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 24W 11D 11L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 20W 13D 13L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.26 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.52 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Leipzig
1
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 3, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 48%, Bayer Leverkusen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (RB Leipzig) and 48% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 35%; Bayer Leverkusen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 48% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of RB Leipzig's matches and 48% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RB Leipzig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat RB Leipzig 1-3 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.83 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.46 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.34 / defence 0.80, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 44% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 29%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.80 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.