Holstein Kiel 1-6 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bayern München at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Holstein-Stadion plays host to Holstein Kiel versus Bayern München in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Holstein Kiel's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Holstein Kiel have posted 5W 1D 4L at Holstein-Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Holstein-Stadion.
Bayern München have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayern München have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayern München's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Holstein Kiel, 1.80 for Bayern München — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bayern München goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 94% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 53% versus Bayern München 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 56% | Bayern München 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.29 xG and Bayern München 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.687 / defence 1.200 | Bayern München attack 1.241 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.477. Holstein Kiel's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Holstein Kiel games / 36 Bayern München games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 20% | Draw 24% | Bayern München 56%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Bayern München 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 40% | Bayern München 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 20% | Draw 24% | Bayern München 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.29 / Bayern München 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.687 / def 1.200 | Bayern München attack 1.241 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Bayern München xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 6 Bayern München.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 20% chance of winning, Bayern München a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Bayern München in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Bayern München (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (0.69) and Bayern München's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayern München's attack (1.24x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.20.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
20%
5.00
24%
4.23
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.49
2.20
Bayern München xG
5.00
20%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
11%
9.02
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
2%
45.08
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.20 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 21W 5D 10L from 36 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayern München, meanwhile, have gone 25W 3D 8L across 36 games — 2.17 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bayern München, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 2.17 for Bayern München. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 9W 2D 7L from 18 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayern München's away record stands at 10W 2D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.75 scored and 1.31 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
Bayern München
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 21W 5D 10L in their last 36 games (1.89 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 25W 3D 8L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.61 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bayern München in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Holstein Kiel
0
Draws
2
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Bayern München?
From 2 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 0, Bayern München have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Bayern München 4-3 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Holstein Kiel, 78% for Bayern München — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Holstein Kiel and 94% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 78% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Holstein Kiel's games and 78% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 94% of Bayern München's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Bayern München tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Holstein Kiel 1-6 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.29 xG and Bayern München 2.20 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Bayern München outscored their 2.20 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.69 / defence 1.20 against Bayern München attack 1.24 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 20% | Draw 24% | Bayern München 56%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 56%, Bayern München 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayern München's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.89 PPG, Bayern München 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayern München win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.