FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 5W 3D 2L at MEWA ARENA — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEWA ARENA.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.60 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 52% and Union Berlin 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 45% | Union Berlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.58 xG and Union Berlin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.822 / defence 0.740 | Union Berlin attack 1.072 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.190. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 FSV Mainz 05 games / 40 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 49% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 19%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Union Berlin 5.26. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FSV Mainz 05 40% | Union Berlin 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 49% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.58 / Union Berlin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.822 / def 0.740 | Union Berlin attack 1.072 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Union Berlin xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 49% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (1.07x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
49%
2.03
31%
3.20
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.53
0.94
Union Berlin xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
25.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.94 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 10D 17L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.48 PPG from 40 outings (14W 17D 9L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.48 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.45 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 14W 17D 9L in their last 40 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Union Berlin away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.21 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Union Berlin have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 42%, Union Berlin 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (FSV Mainz 05) and 47% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 37% of games; Union Berlin in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 63% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 47% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat FSV Mainz 05 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat FSV Mainz 05 1-2 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.58 xG and Union Berlin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.82 / defence 0.74 against Union Berlin attack 1.07 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 49% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 19%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 45%, Union Berlin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.23 PPG, Union Berlin 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.