FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05 at MEWA ARENA this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, SC Freiburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for SC Freiburg and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 65% versus SC Freiburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 65% | SC Freiburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.70 xG and SC Freiburg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.908 / defence 1.067 | SC Freiburg attack 0.790 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.879 / away 1.437. Data: 46 FSV Mainz 05 games / 46 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 46% | Draw 29% | SC Freiburg 25%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | SC Freiburg 4.00. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 80% | SC Freiburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 46% | Draw 29% | SC Freiburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.70 / SC Freiburg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.908 / def 1.067 | SC Freiburg attack 0.790 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.879 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SC Freiburg xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
FSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 46% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
Record (4 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 3 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.91) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.79x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.46
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.91
1.21
SC Freiburg xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
5%
21.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.21 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 13W 15D 18L from 46 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 14L across 46 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Freiburg's season.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 21W 11D 14L in their last 46 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or SC Freiburg away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.27 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.18 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
4
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 64%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FSV Mainz 05 and 64% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 32%; SC Freiburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 64% of SC Freiburg's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat FSV Mainz 05 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FSV Mainz 05 0-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.70 xG and SC Freiburg 1.21 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against SC Freiburg attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 46% | Draw 29% | SC Freiburg 25%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 65%, SC Freiburg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.