FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FSV Mainz 05 (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FSV Mainz 05 face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Hertha BSC travel to MEWA ARENA to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 September 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at MEWA ARENA this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEWA ARENA. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
FSV Mainz 05 are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 0 for Hertha BSC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–1 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 55% versus Hertha BSC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 60% | Hertha BSC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.19 xG and Hertha BSC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.851 / defence 0.871 | Hertha BSC attack 0.816 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.550. Data: 40 FSV Mainz 05 games / 40 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 38% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 34%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Hertha BSC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 30% | Hertha BSC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 38% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.19 / Hertha BSC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.851 / def 0.871 | Hertha BSC attack 0.816 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.550 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Hertha BSC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 16 September 2022 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 38% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC?
Record (4 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 2W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.85) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.52
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.29
1.10
Hertha BSC xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.10 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 16W 8D 16L from 40 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 21L across 40 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.40 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 10W 6D 3L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — FSV Mainz 05 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.08 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Hertha BSC away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.89 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.95 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2021, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
0
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Hertha BSC 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 37%, Hertha BSC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FSV Mainz 05) and 53% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 26% of games; Hertha BSC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 42% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 53% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC finished level at 1-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.19 xG and Hertha BSC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.85 / defence 0.87 against Hertha BSC attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 38% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 34%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 60%, Hertha BSC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.40 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.