FSV Mainz 05 3-0 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 34%, yet in-form Borussia Dortmund provide a compelling counter-argument — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Borussia Dortmund travel to MEWA ARENA to take on FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FSV Mainz 05 at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Borussia Dortmund — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Dortmund are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Borussia Dortmund have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for FSV Mainz 05.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2023, ended FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia Dortmund — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 62% and Borussia Dortmund 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 53% | Borussia Dortmund 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FSV Mainz 05 surrender their half-time lead 45% of the time, while Borussia Dortmund have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.28 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.958 / defence 0.769 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.162 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.412. FSV Mainz 05 have a tight defence (rating 0.769), which is pulling Borussia Dortmund's projected output down. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 66 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 66.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 34% | Draw 33% | Borussia Dortmund 33%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.93 | Draw 3.07 | Borussia Dortmund 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 50% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 34% | Draw 33% | Borussia Dortmund 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.28 / Borussia Dortmund 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.958 / def 0.769 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.162 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Borussia Dortmund xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
FSV Mainz 05 3 - 0 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 34% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 0.96x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FSV Mainz 05's last 66 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.07
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.54
1.26
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.26 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 17W 24D 25L from 66 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 39W 14D 13L across 66 games — 1.98 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 11W 11D 11L from their last 33 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 16W 9D 8L across their last 33 away games, a 1.73 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 61%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05 (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 17W 24D 25L in their last 66 games (1.14 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 39W 14D 13L in their last 66 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.33 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.73 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Feb 2026, when Borussia Dortmund won Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 58%, Borussia Dortmund 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FSV Mainz 05) and 58% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 58% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 91% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Borussia Dortmund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia Dortmund 3-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.28 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.26 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.96 / defence 0.77 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.16 / defence 0.81, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 34% | Draw 33% | Borussia Dortmund 33%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 53%, Borussia Dortmund 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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