FC Schalke 04 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 meet at VELTINS-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FC Schalke 04 (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VELTINS-Arena, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC Schalke 04 are significantly better at VELTINS-Arena than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05 away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FSV Mainz 05 are 0.70 PPG clear of FC Schalke 04 in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Schalke 04 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FSV Mainz 05 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Schalke 04, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Schalke 04 half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Schalke 04 66% and FSV Mainz 05 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 70% | FSV Mainz 05 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.47 xG and FSV Mainz 05 2.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.718 / defence 1.669 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.098 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.328. FC Schalke 04's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 FC Schalke 04 games / 47 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 22% | Draw 19% | FSV Mainz 05 59%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 4.55 | Draw 5.26 | FSV Mainz 05 1.69. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 2.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 70% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 22% | Draw 19% | FSV Mainz 05 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.47 / FSV Mainz 05 2.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.718 / def 1.669 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.098 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
2.43
FSV Mainz 05 xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC Schalke 04 1 - 0 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 22% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 59% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (2 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 2 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Schalke 04's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against FSV Mainz 05's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (1.10x) against FC Schalke 04's defence (1.67x) — and the away total comes out at 2.43.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 1-3 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
22%
4.52
19%
5.17
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.90
2.43
FSV Mainz 05 xG
4.52
22%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
9%
11.39
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
2%
51.48
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 2.43 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Schalke 04 come into this having played 47 games, going 21W 8D 18L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.36 PPG from 47 outings (18W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for FC Schalke 04 against 1.36 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Schalke 04's home form reads 11W 3D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (7W 2D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.45 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 21W 8D 18L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 18W 10D 19L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.57 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Schalke 04 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Schalke 04
2
Draws
0
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for FC Schalke 04, 74% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC Schalke 04 and 70% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC Schalke 04's games and 74% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 70% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat FSV Mainz 05 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat FSV Mainz 05 1-0 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.47 xG and FSV Mainz 05 2.43 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FSV Mainz 05 landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.72 / defence 1.67 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 22% | Draw 19% | FSV Mainz 05 59%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a FC Schalke 04 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 70%, FSV Mainz 05 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.51 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.