1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Voith-Arena, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.70 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 56% and Eintracht Frankfurt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 56% | Eintracht Frankfurt 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.881 / defence 1.107 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.059 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.257. Data: 23 1. FC Heidenheim games / 57 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.881 / def 1.107 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.059 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 40% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.68
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.09
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.47 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 17D 14L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt sit at 1.47 PPG from 57 outings (21W 21D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.67 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 17W 7D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Frankfurt have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (7W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.65 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 65%.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 26W 17D 14L in their last 57 games (1.67 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 21W 21D 15L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.07 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.11 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Frankfurt defy the odds to beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.88 / defence 1.11 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, Eintracht Frankfurt 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.67 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.