1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim welcome Borussia Dortmund to Voith-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Dortmund are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 2–4 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 62% and Borussia Dortmund 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 55% | Borussia Dortmund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.41 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.684 / defence 1.228 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.908 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.817 / away 1.405. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.41. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Borussia Dortmund's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 53 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 53.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 41%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.91 | Draw 4.11 | Borussia Dortmund 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.41 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 30% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.41 / Borussia Dortmund 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.684 / def 1.228 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.908 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.817 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Borussia Dortmund xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 34% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.68) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 53 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
34%
2.91
24%
4.11
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.98
1.57
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.57 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 14D 25L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.68 PPG from 53 outings (25W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 26 away games (9W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 1.92 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 68%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 14W 14D 25L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 25W 14D 14L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.27 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 58%, Borussia Dortmund 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 62% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 69% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 88% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.41 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.57 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.68 / defence 1.23 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 41%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 20
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →