1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 54% versus Bayer Leverkusen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.887 / defence 1.102 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.326 / defence 0.670. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.216. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.670 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 1. FC Heidenheim games / 55 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 19% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 54%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.85. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 19% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.887 / def 1.102 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.326 / def 0.670 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Bayer Leverkusen xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 19% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.89) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.33x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
19%
5.32
27%
3.69
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.76
1.78
Bayer Leverkusen xG
5.32
19%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
31.43
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.78 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 26W 16D 13L from 55 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 12L across 55 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.91 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 17W 7D 3L from 27 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 14W 7D 6L across 27 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.04 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Bayer Leverkusen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 26W 16D 13L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 31W 12D 12L in their last 55 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.15 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.81 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 6-0 on 8 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 52%, Bayer Leverkusen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 63% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 33%; Bayer Leverkusen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 48% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 63% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.78 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.33 / defence 0.67, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 19% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 54%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.71 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.