FC Augsburg 1-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Thursday 15 January 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Union Berlin are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Historically, FC Augsburg have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 8 meetings, with Union Berlin managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Union Berlin winning.
The historical record gives FC Augsburg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 48% versus Union Berlin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Union Berlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.19 xG and Union Berlin 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.724 / defence 0.985 | Union Berlin attack 0.788 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.437. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 FC Augsburg games / 50 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 36% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Union Berlin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
FC Augsburg dominate the H2H record, yet Union Berlin are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | Union Berlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 36% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Augsburg 1.19 / Union Berlin 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.724 / def 0.985 | Union Berlin attack 0.788 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Union Berlin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 15 January 2026 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin part of?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 36% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Augsburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
Record (8 meetings): FC Augsburg 4W | Draws 3 | Union Berlin 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.72) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.79x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
36%
2.77
31%
3.18
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.31
1.12
Union Berlin xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.12 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 15W 12D 23L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 19L across 50 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.26 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 9W 5D 10L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 8W 4D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.16 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 16W 15D 19L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Union Berlin away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.33 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Union Berlin have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 46%, Union Berlin 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 50% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 38% of games; Union Berlin in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 38% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 50% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 17, as FC Augsburg and Union Berlin drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.19 xG and Union Berlin 1.12 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against Union Berlin attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 36% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 32%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.14 PPG, Union Berlin 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.