FC Augsburg 1-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Augsburg face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host SV Darmstadt 98 at WWK Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, FC Augsburg have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 0.80 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 62% versus SV Darmstadt 98 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Augsburg surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.29 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.943 / defence 1.163 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.762 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.932 / away 1.444. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.256 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Augsburg's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.28. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 40 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 6.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 60% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.67 | Draw 5.08 | SV Darmstadt 98 4.91. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.29 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 7 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 60% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG FC Augsburg 2.29 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.943 / def 1.163 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.762 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.932 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
FC Augsburg 1 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 7) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 60% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.94x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Augsburg's last 40 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
60%
1.67
20%
5.08
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.57
1.28
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
10%
9.85
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
2%
48.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.28 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 10W 9D 21L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
SV Darmstadt 98's form line: 21W 8D 11L from 40 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 20 home games (7W 6D 7L).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 2D 9L from their last 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.50 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
FC Augsburg (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Augsburg
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 21W 8D 11L in their last 40 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.35 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.45 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Augsburg have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: SV Darmstadt 98 0-6 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 55%, SV Darmstadt 98 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 55% (SV Darmstadt 98).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 45% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 55% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 60% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Darmstadt 98 defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC Augsburg 1-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.29 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.28 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 60% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a SV Darmstadt 98 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 60%, SV Darmstadt 98 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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