FC Augsburg 0-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Hertha BSC travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 0.90 PPG versus Hertha BSC's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Hertha BSC, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for FC Augsburg.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
It is worth noting that Hertha BSC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 55% versus Hertha BSC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 55% | Hertha BSC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.31 xG and Hertha BSC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.854 / defence 1.178 | Hertha BSC attack 0.742 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.620. Data: 38 FC Augsburg games / 38 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Hertha BSC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Hertha BSC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Augsburg 1.31 / Hertha BSC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.854 / def 1.178 | Hertha BSC attack 0.742 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.620 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Hertha BSC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
FC Augsburg 0 - 2 Hertha BSC.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 34% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC?
Record (4 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.55
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.73
1.42
Hertha BSC xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.42 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 8D 19L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 0.97 PPG from 38 outings (10W 7D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.08 PPG, Hertha BSC on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.79 points per game from 19 outings (4W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.03 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 10W 7D 21L in their last 38 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.32 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2020, when Hertha BSC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
5
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, Hertha BSC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 68%, Hertha BSC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for FC Augsburg and 58% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FC Augsburg's games and 42% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of FC Augsburg's matches and 58% of Hertha BSC's.
Do FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat FC Augsburg 0-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.31 xG and Hertha BSC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Hertha BSC attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 38%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 55%, Hertha BSC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.08 PPG, Hertha BSC 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.