FC Augsburg 0-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Hertha BSC travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hertha BSC's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, FC Augsburg have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Augsburg, 2 for Hertha BSC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 56% versus Hertha BSC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 49% | Hertha BSC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.09 xG and Hertha BSC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.065 / defence 0.860 | Hertha BSC attack 0.667 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.318. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 FC Augsburg games / 63 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 67% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 11%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Hertha BSC 9.09. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Hertha BSC lead the H2H ledger, but FC Augsburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: FC Augsburg 80% | Hertha BSC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 67% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Augsburg 2.09 / Hertha BSC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.065 / def 0.860 | Hertha BSC attack 0.667 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Hertha BSC xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
FC Augsburg 0 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 67% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC?
Record (3 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 2W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.66
11%
8.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.85
0.76
Hertha BSC xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
8.90
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
1%
72.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.76 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 14D 31L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 0.97 PPG from 63 outings (15W 16D 32L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.08 PPG, Hertha BSC on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.74 points per game from 31 outings (5W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.14 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 18W 14D 31L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 15W 16D 32L in their last 63 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.42 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2020, when Hertha BSC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
5
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, Hertha BSC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 61%, Hertha BSC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Augsburg) and 58% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Augsburg's games and 55% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 58% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hertha BSC defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat FC Augsburg 0-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.09 xG and Hertha BSC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Hertha BSC attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 67% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 11%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Hertha BSC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 49%, Hertha BSC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.08 PPG, Hertha BSC 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.