FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FSV Mainz 05 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
FSV Mainz 05 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FSV Mainz 05 have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 60% and FSV Mainz 05 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 63% | FSV Mainz 05 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.75 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.023 / defence 0.900 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.027 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 FC Augsburg games / 35 FSV Mainz 05 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 48% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | FSV Mainz 05 3.85. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 48% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Augsburg 1.75 / FSV Mainz 05 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.023 / def 0.900 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.027 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FSV Mainz 05 xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 48% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (10 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 1 | FSV Mainz 05 7W.
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 1.02x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (1.03x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.91
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.99
1.24
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.24 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 13W 7D 15L from 35 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 14L across 35 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.17 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 8W 5D 4L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 6W 5D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.26 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 7D 15L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.71 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
7
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 53%, FSV Mainz 05 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Augsburg) and 65% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Augsburg's games and 65% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Augsburg's matches and 65% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.