FC Augsburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for FC Augsburg, 2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 67% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.79 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.103 / defence 1.018 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.854 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.686. Data: 39 FC Augsburg games / 39 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Augsburg 1.79 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.103 / def 1.018 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.854 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.686 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 October 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 43% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (6 meetings): FC Augsburg 3W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.70
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.25
1.47
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
5%
20.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.47 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 10D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.03 PPG from 39 outings (9W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.10 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.59 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 13D 17L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.42 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 74%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for FC Augsburg and 68% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC Augsburg's games and 74% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of FC Augsburg's matches and 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.79 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.47 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.10 / defence 1.02 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 67%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.10 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.