FC Augsburg 1-3 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 8 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
1. FC Köln (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Augsburg's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: FC Augsburg 2W, 1. FC Köln 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 58% versus 1. FC Köln 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 55% | 1. FC Köln 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.58 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.781 / defence 0.853 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.733 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.748 / away 1.265. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 FC Augsburg games / 60 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.89 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Köln 6.25. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | 1. FC Köln 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Augsburg 1.58 / 1. FC Köln 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.781 / def 0.853 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.733 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.748 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.79
1. FC Köln xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
FC Augsburg 1 - 3 1. FC Köln.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 53% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
Record (5 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.78x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.73x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
53%
1.89
32%
3.17
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.37
0.79
1. FC Köln xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
3%
31.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.79 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 13D 29L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (20W 20D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.33 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (6W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.42 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 20W 20D 20L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1. FC Köln away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.43 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 60%, 1. FC Köln 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 50% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Augsburg's games and 67% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 50% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat FC Augsburg 1-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.58 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.79 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.78 / defence 0.85 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 16%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Köln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 55%, 1. FC Köln 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.12 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.