Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Eintracht Frankfurt face Werder Bremen.

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Analysis & Preview

Werder Bremen travel to Frankfurt Arena to take on Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Friday 5 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Werder Bremen stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Werder Bremen away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 1.30 (Werder Bremen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 for Werder Bremen and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 Werder Bremen — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% and Werder Bremen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 59% | Werder Bremen 62%). Note also that Werder Bremen surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Eintracht Frankfurt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.45 xG and Werder Bremen 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.985 / defence 0.834 | Werder Bremen attack 0.823 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.432. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 61 games and Werder Bremen's last 61.

Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 45% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 23%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.20 | Draw 3.18 | Werder Bremen 4.32. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% (last 10 home games) | Werder Bremen 50% (last 10 away games).

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