Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host FC Augsburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 6W 3D 1L at Deutsche Bank Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC Augsburg's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eintracht Frankfurt at 0.70 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, FC Augsburg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 65% and FC Augsburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 51% | FC Augsburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.18 xG and FC Augsburg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.949 / defence 0.841 | FC Augsburg attack 1.180 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.744 / away 1.315. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 63 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | FC Augsburg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | FC Augsburg 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.18 / FC Augsburg 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.949 / def 0.841 | FC Augsburg attack 1.180 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.744 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC Augsburg xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 55% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.03
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.49
1.30
FC Augsburg xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
11%
8.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
2%
44.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.30 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 21D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.08 PPG from 63 outings (18W 14D 31L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.33 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 11W 11D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.77 points per game from 31 outings (6W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.22 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 21W 21D 21L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 18W 14D 31L in their last 63 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FC Augsburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.42 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
6
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, FC Augsburg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 61% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 58% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 61% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 30, as Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.18 xG and FC Augsburg 1.30 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.95 / defence 0.84 against FC Augsburg attack 1.18 / defence 1.32, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 20%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 51%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.33 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.