Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund meet at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 December 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 6D 1L from 9 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 1W 3D 0L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 6W 0D 3L across 9 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's away record: 3W 0D 1L from 4 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Borussia Dortmund are 0.67 PPG clear of Eintracht Frankfurt in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.00 vs 1.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 89% and Borussia Dortmund 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | Borussia Dortmund 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.15 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.859 / defence 1.019 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.012 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.601. Data: 9 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 9 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 23% | Draw 31% | Borussia Dortmund 46%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Borussia Dortmund 2.17. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 100% | Borussia Dortmund 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 23% | Draw 31% | Borussia Dortmund 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.15 / Borussia Dortmund 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.859 / def 1.019 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.012 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.601 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Borussia Dortmund xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 December 2020 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 23% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-6D-1L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-0D-3L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.01x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
23%
4.34
31%
3.19
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.80
1.65
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
4%
22.66
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.65 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 6D 1L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 6W 0D 3L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 6D 1L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 0D 3L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.50 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 4-0 on 22 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 100%, Borussia Dortmund 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 25% for Borussia Dortmund.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 25% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 25% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 10, as Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.15 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.65 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 23% | Draw 31% | Borussia Dortmund 46%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 56%, Borussia Dortmund 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.