Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim make the trip to Deutsche Bank Park to face Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 1D 5L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
1899 Hoffenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
1899 Hoffenheim away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.40 for 1899 Hoffenheim — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 0W, 1899 Hoffenheim 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Eintracht Frankfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 73% and 1899 Hoffenheim 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | 1899 Hoffenheim 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.34 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.744 / defence 1.027 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.884 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.281. Eintracht Frankfurt's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 64 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 39% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 31%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | 1899 Hoffenheim 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 39% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.34 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.744 / def 1.027 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.884 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.16
1899 Hoffenheim xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 39% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 0W | Draws 0 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.74) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1899 Hoffenheim's attack (0.88x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
39%
2.53
30%
3.39
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.50
1.16
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.16 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 64 games, going 26W 21D 17L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.38 PPG from 64 outings (24W 16D 24L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.38 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 14W 12D 6L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.03 points per game from 32 outings (8W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.59 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 26W 21D 17L in their last 64 games (1.55 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 24W 16D 24L in their last 64 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.69 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Draws
3
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Eintracht Frankfurt, 62% for 1899 Hoffenheim — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 66% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 62% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 66% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 31, as Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.34 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.16 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 39% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 31%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 55%, 1899 Hoffenheim 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.55 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.