Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Werder Bremen travel to BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 3W 3D 4L at BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Werder Bremen are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, Werder Bremen 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Werder Bremen trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% and Werder Bremen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% | Werder Bremen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 xG and Werder Bremen 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.063 / defence 1.143 | Werder Bremen attack 1.337 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.539. Werder Bremen have an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — the away xG of 2.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 42 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 47%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Werder Bremen 2.13. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.25. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.25 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Werder Bremen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 79% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 / Werder Bremen 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.063 / def 1.143 | Werder Bremen attack 1.337 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.539 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Werder Bremen xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 30% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
Record (6 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 3 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.06x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 2.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
30%
3.31
23%
4.36
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
4.25
2.35
Werder Bremen xG
3.31
30%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.68
Clean Sheet
10%
10.51
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
3%
34.81
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.35 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 4.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 10W 14D 18L from 42 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 16L across 42 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.05 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 7W 6D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.48 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 14D 18L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 14W 12D 16L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Werder Bremen away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.29 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Werder Bremen won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67%, Werder Bremen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 57% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 62% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 57% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Werder Bremen 4-1 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 xG and Werder Bremen 2.35 xG, a combined 4.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Werder Bremen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Werder Bremen attack 1.34 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 47%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Borussia Mönchengladbach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 71%, Werder Bremen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.05 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.