Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome Union Berlin to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union Berlin are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Union Berlin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Union Berlin, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Union Berlin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union Berlin have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Union Berlin trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% and Union Berlin 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | Union Berlin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG and Union Berlin 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.044 / defence 0.898 | Union Berlin attack 0.935 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.327. Data: 62 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 62 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 46% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 23%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Union Berlin 4.35. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Union Berlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 46% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 / Union Berlin 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.044 / def 0.898 | Union Berlin attack 0.935 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Union Berlin xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 46% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 3W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.04x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.23
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.74
1.11
Union Berlin xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.11 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 21W 18D 23L from 62 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 15L across 62 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 16W 7D 8L from 31 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 12W 6D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.50 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 31W 16D 15L in their last 62 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Union Berlin away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.77 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Union Berlin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, Union Berlin 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 61% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 58% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 61% of Union Berlin's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.62 xG and Union Berlin 1.11 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 46% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 23%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 63%, Union Berlin 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.