Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome FC Augsburg to BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.70 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 4 for FC Augsburg and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% and FC Augsburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | FC Augsburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 xG and FC Augsburg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.057 / defence 0.829 | FC Augsburg attack 0.866 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.351. Data: 56 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 56 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | FC Augsburg 5.00. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 / FC Augsburg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.057 / def 0.829 | FC Augsburg attack 0.866 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.97
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 3 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 54% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
Record (7 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 4W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.81
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.71
0.97
FC Augsburg xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
3%
28.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.97 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 17D 22L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 17W 16D 23L from 56 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.21 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.46 PPG from 28 outings (11W 8D 9L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 6W 7D 15L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.32 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.46 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 64%, FC Augsburg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 61% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 57% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 61% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Augsburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 xG and FC Augsburg 0.97 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.7 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against FC Augsburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 20%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, FC Augsburg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.21 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.