Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 48%, yet in-form Borussia Dortmund provide a compelling counter-argument — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK plays host to Borussia Mönchengladbach versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 25 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Borussia Dortmund in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 91% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% and Borussia Dortmund 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% | Borussia Dortmund 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.17 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.152 / defence 0.920 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.424 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.757 / away 1.233. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 39 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 26%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Dortmund 3.85. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.17 / Borussia Dortmund 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.152 / def 0.920 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.424 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.757 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Borussia Dortmund xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 0 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 48% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.42x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.94
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.79
1.61
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.75
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
11%
8.77
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
3%
33.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.61 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 14W 11D 14L from 39 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 24W 4D 11L across 39 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 9W 5D 5L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 10W 2D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.36 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 14W 11D 14L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 24W 4D 11L in their last 39 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.68 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 74% for Borussia Dortmund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 74% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 74% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 74% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Mönchengladbach edge out Borussia Dortmund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Borussia Dortmund 1-0 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.17 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.61 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.15 / defence 0.92 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.42 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 26%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%, Borussia Dortmund 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.