Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host VfB Stuttgart at Signal Iduna Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Borussia Dortmund haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Signal Iduna Park this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfB Stuttgart haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, VfB Stuttgart 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 50% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 56% | VfB Stuttgart 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.25 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.146 / defence 0.919 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.248 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.468. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Borussia Dortmund games / 34 VfB Stuttgart games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 51% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 29%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.96 | Draw 5.00 | VfB Stuttgart 3.45. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 50% | VfB Stuttgart 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 51% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.25 / VfB Stuttgart 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.146 / def 0.919 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.248 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.822 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.68
VfB Stuttgart xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Signal Iduna Park.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 51% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 29% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (10 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 4W | Draws 2 | VfB Stuttgart 4W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.15) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
51%
1.97
20%
4.92
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.93
1.68
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
11%
9.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
3%
32.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.68 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 22W 7D 5L from 34 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. Borussia Dortmund haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 8L across 34 games — 1.82 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five. VfB Stuttgart haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 2.15 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 13W 2D 2L from 17 games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 6W 5D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfB Stuttgart's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.09 scored and 1.44 conceded. VfB Stuttgart's attacking output running into Borussia Dortmund's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Pre-Season
VfB Stuttgart
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 22W 7D 5L in their last 34 games (2.15 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 18W 8D 8L in their last 34 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.41 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 41%, VfB Stuttgart 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Borussia Dortmund and 100% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 82% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 100% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.