Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Union Berlin to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 2.50 PPG, Union Berlin 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Borussia Dortmund, 1 for Union Berlin and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 67% and Union Berlin 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 72% | Union Berlin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.55 xG and Union Berlin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.620 / defence 0.988 | Union Berlin attack 0.956 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.748 / away 1.265. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.620 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Borussia Dortmund games / 60 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 65% | Draw 21% | Union Berlin 14%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Union Berlin 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 65% | Draw 21% | Union Berlin 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 66% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.55 / Union Berlin 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.620 / def 0.988 | Union Berlin attack 0.956 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.748 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Union Berlin xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 65% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 2W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.62x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 2.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.71
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.74
1.19
Union Berlin xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
8%
12.79
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
1%
91.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.19 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 60 games, going 39W 5D 16L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.80 PPG from 60 outings (31W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 2.03 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 23W 1D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.41 points per game from 29 outings (12W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.37 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.52 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 39W 5D 16L in their last 60 games (2.03 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 31W 15D 14L in their last 60 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Union Berlin away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.41 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
0
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, Union Berlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 69%, Union Berlin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Borussia Dortmund and 59% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Union Berlin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 55% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 59% of Union Berlin's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out Union Berlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Union Berlin 2-1 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.55 xG and Union Berlin 1.19 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.62 / defence 0.99 against Union Berlin attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 65% | Draw 21% | Union Berlin 14%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 72%, Union Berlin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 2.03 PPG, Union Berlin 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.