Borussia Dortmund 5-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees SC Freiburg travel to Signal-Iduna-Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 January 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Signal-Iduna-Park, Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at Signal-Iduna-Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 0, SC Freiburg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 71% and SC Freiburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 77% | SC Freiburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.55 xG and SC Freiburg 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.270 / defence 0.952 | SC Freiburg attack 1.193 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.339. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SC Freiburg's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Borussia Dortmund games / 52 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 37% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 36%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | SC Freiburg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 80% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 37% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.55 / SC Freiburg 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.270 / def 0.952 | SC Freiburg attack 1.193 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.52
SC Freiburg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund 5 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 37% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 0W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.27x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.69
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.07
1.52
SC Freiburg xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.52 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 32W 5D 15L from 52 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 17L across 52 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 19W 2D 5L from 26 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 9W 6D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.58 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 32W 5D 15L in their last 52 games (1.94 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 20W 15D 17L in their last 52 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.27 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 65%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Borussia Dortmund and 62% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 5-1 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.55 xG and SC Freiburg 1.52 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.27 / defence 0.95 against SC Freiburg attack 1.19 / defence 0.71, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 37% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 36%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 77%, SC Freiburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.54 average — above their attacking norm. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.