Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC meet at Signal-Iduna-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 March 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Dortmund's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 5W 2D 3L at Signal-Iduna-Park — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hertha BSC have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Borussia Dortmund's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Borussia Dortmund lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2020, ended 5–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 62% versus Hertha BSC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 75% | Hertha BSC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.75 xG and Hertha BSC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.203 / defence 1.154 | Hertha BSC attack 0.669 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.388. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Borussia Dortmund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Borussia Dortmund games / 24 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 52% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 22%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Hertha BSC 4.55. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Hertha BSC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 52% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.75 / Hertha BSC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.203 / def 1.154 | Hertha BSC attack 0.669 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Hertha BSC xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 March 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 52% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 1W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.67x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.77
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.82
1.07
Hertha BSC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
4%
26.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.07 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 12W 3D 9L from 24 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 13L across 24 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 6W 2D 3L from 11 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 1W 4D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.17 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 12W 3D 9L in their last 24 games (1.62 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Hertha BSC away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 1.82 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 2-5 on 21 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Borussia Dortmund
0
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 54%, Hertha BSC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Borussia Dortmund and 46% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 54% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 46% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Hertha BSC 2-0 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.75 xG and Hertha BSC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.20 / defence 1.15 against Hertha BSC attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 52% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 22%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 75%, Hertha BSC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.