Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Arminia Bielefeld to Signal-Iduna-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund at Signal-Iduna-Park this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Borussia Dortmund: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Arminia Bielefeld, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 71% versus Arminia Bielefeld 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 78% | Arminia Bielefeld 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.33 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.557 / defence 1.068 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.753 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.335. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.557 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Borussia Dortmund games / 59 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 65% | Draw 20% | Arminia Bielefeld 16%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Arminia Bielefeld 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 70% | Arminia Bielefeld 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 65% | Draw 20% | Arminia Bielefeld 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.33 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.557 / def 1.068 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.753 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Arminia Bielefeld xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Borussia Dortmund 1 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 65% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 3W | Draws 0 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.56x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
65%
1.54
20%
5.13
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.41
1.07
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
10%
10.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
2%
66.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.07 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 58 games, going 36W 6D 16L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 1.02 PPG from 58 outings (14W 17D 27L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 20W 2D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (6W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.81 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 36W 6D 16L in their last 58 games (1.97 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 14W 17D 27L in their last 58 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.21 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Arminia Bielefeld specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
0
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2022, when Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Arminia Bielefeld?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 68%, Arminia Bielefeld 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Borussia Dortmund and 39% for Arminia Bielefeld. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 36% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 39% of Arminia Bielefeld's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out Arminia Bielefeld 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.33 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.07 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Dortmund fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Arminia Bielefeld landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.56 / defence 1.07 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.75 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 65% | Draw 20% | Arminia Bielefeld 16%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 78%, Arminia Bielefeld 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.