Bayern München 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayern München at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Bayern München welcome Arminia Bielefeld to Allianz Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayern München — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 3.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bayern München have posted 8W 1D 1L at Allianz Arena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bayern München, 0 for Arminia Bielefeld and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bayern München trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayern München 74% versus Arminia Bielefeld 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayern München 83% | Arminia Bielefeld 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 2.21 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.572 / defence 0.857 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.821 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.730 / away 1.255. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.572 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Bayern München games / 46 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 65% | Draw 23% | Arminia Bielefeld 12%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Arminia Bielefeld 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Bayern München 50% | Arminia Bielefeld 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Allianz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 65% | Draw 23% | Arminia Bielefeld 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Bayern München 2.21 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.572 / def 0.857 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.821 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.730 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Arminia Bielefeld xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Allianz Arena.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Bayern München 1 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Arena.
What competition is Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 65% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bayern München and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (2 meetings): Bayern München 1W | Draws 1 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are Bayern München and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Bayern München (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bayern München's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.35
12%
8.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Bayern München xG
Total xG
3.09
0.88
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
8.67
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
1%
79.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Bayern München and 0.88 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bayern München's recent record stands at 33W 7D 6L from 46 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arminia Bielefeld, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 22L across 46 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayern München by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bayern München have managed 17W 4D 1L from 22 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record stands at 4W 8D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bayern München are averaging 3.04 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.76 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 33W 7D 6L in their last 46 games (2.30 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 10W 14D 22L in their last 46 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Bayern München's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.50 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Bayern München or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bayern München have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2020, when Bayern München won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayern München's record when hosting Arminia Bielefeld specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bayern München
1
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 3, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Arminia Bielefeld?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayern München 68%, Arminia Bielefeld 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Bayern München and 41% for Arminia Bielefeld. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 68% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Bayern München's games and 46% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayern München vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Bayern München's matches and 41% of Arminia Bielefeld's.
Do Bayern München and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out Arminia Bielefeld 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.21 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.88 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayern München fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Arminia Bielefeld landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.57 / defence 0.86 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.82 / defence 0.81, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 65% | Draw 23% | Arminia Bielefeld 12%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 83%, Arminia Bielefeld 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.