Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bayer Leverkusen face 1. FC Köln.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BayArena plays host to Bayer Leverkusen versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bayer Leverkusen's home record at BayArena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
1. FC Köln (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Bayer Leverkusen's favour (2.10 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 3W, 1. FC Köln 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 59% and 1. FC Köln 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 66% | 1. FC Köln 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.22 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.206 / defence 0.904 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.042 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.257. Data: 64 Bayer Leverkusen games / 64 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Köln 17%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Köln 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | 1. FC Köln 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Köln 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.22 / 1. FC Köln 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.206 / def 0.904 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.042 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
1. FC Köln xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 May 2023 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 2 1. FC Köln.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 59% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln?
Record (5 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 3W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.21x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (1.04x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.19
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.41
1.18
1. FC Köln xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
2%
53.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.18 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 64 games, going 33W 13D 18L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.36 PPG from 64 outings (22W 21D 21L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.36 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 18W 4D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (8W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.44 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 61%.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
1. FC Köln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 33W 13D 18L in their last 64 games (1.75 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 22W 21D 21L in their last 64 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.81 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-4 on 16 Dec 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bayer Leverkusen
1
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 7, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 53%, 1. FC Köln 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 53% (1. FC Köln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; 1. FC Köln in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 69% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 53% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.22 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.18 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. 1. FC Köln outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.21 / defence 0.90 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 59% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Köln 17%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Köln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 66%, 1. FC Köln 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.75 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.