Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Hertha BSC travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 January 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 5L across 7 games at SchücoArena this term (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.14 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hertha BSC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hertha BSC trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 43% versus Hertha BSC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 43% | Hertha BSC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 xG and Hertha BSC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.632 / defence 1.093 | Hertha BSC attack 0.872 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.549. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.632 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Arminia Bielefeld games / 14 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 21% | Draw 33% | Hertha BSC 47%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Hertha BSC 2.13. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 43% | Hertha BSC 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jan 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 21% | Draw 33% | Hertha BSC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 / Hertha BSC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.632 / def 1.093 | Hertha BSC attack 0.872 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Hertha BSC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 January 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 21% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
21%
4.84
33%
3.07
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.41
1.48
Hertha BSC xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
5%
21.20
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.48 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 1D 10L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 2W 0D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.64 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 1D 10L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 0.86 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 43%, Hertha BSC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 71% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 71% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 71% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arminia Bielefeld defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat Hertha BSC 1-0 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 xG and Hertha BSC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hertha BSC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.63 / defence 1.09 against Hertha BSC attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 21% | Draw 33% | Hertha BSC 47%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Arminia Bielefeld win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 43%, Hertha BSC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.