Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld at SchücoArena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SchücoArena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Arminia Bielefeld at 1.50 PPG versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Arminia Bielefeld, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2021, ended 1–5 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 91% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 36% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 81%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 39% | Eintracht Frankfurt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.57 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.686 / defence 0.863 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.186 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.171. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Arminia Bielefeld games / 36 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 43% | Draw 31% | Eintracht Frankfurt 26%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arminia Bielefeld at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 20% | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 43% | Draw 31% | Eintracht Frankfurt 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.57 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.686 / def 0.863 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.186 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 43% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (2 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.69x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.21
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.77
1.20
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.20 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arminia Bielefeld's recent record stands at 9W 10D 17L from 36 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 7L across 36 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Arminia Bielefeld have managed 6W 3D 9L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Frankfurt's season.
The Goals Picture
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.97 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 81%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 16W 13D 7L in their last 36 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.17 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jan 2021, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
2
Draws
1
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 28%, Eintracht Frankfurt 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 78% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 78% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 78% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 39% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 1-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.57 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.20 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.69 / defence 0.86 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.19 / defence 1.27, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 43% | Draw 31% | Eintracht Frankfurt 26%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 39%, Eintracht Frankfurt 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.