Arminia Bielefeld 1-5 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld at SchücoArena this season: 4W 0D 5L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Arminia Bielefeld at 1.30 PPG versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Arminia Bielefeld, 0 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 35% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 82%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 41% | Eintracht Frankfurt 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.805 / defence 0.906 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.973 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.444. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Arminia Bielefeld games / 17 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 33% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 37%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 33% | Eintracht Frankfurt 67%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 33% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.805 / def 0.906 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.973 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 January 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 5 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 33% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (1 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 0W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.81x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
33%
3.02
30%
3.29
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.47
1.27
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.27 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arminia Bielefeld's recent record stands at 5W 2D 10L from 17 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 2L across 17 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Arminia Bielefeld have managed 4W 0D 5L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 3W 4D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.76 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 82%.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 6W 9D 2L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.33 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jan 2021, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
2
Draws
1
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 33%, Eintracht Frankfurt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 67% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-5 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.27 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.97 / defence 1.25, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 33% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 37%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 41%, Eintracht Frankfurt 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.