1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PreZero Arena plays host to 1899 Hoffenheim versus SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
1899 Hoffenheim (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim at PreZero Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.30 for SC Paderborn 07 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 67% and SC Paderborn 07 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 74% | SC Paderborn 07 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.88 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.099 / defence 1.037 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.628 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. Data: 42 1899 Hoffenheim games / 8 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 17%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 5.88. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.88 / SC Paderborn 07 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.099 / def 1.037 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.628 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SC Paderborn 07 xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at PreZero Arena.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 60% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 0W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.10) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.63x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.34
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.77
0.90
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
3%
38.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0.90 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 42 games, going 21W 7D 14L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.69 PPG from 42 outings (20W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.69 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 12W 2D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.52 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 21W 7D 14L in their last 42 games (1.67 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.81 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.52 PPG.
Have 1899 Hoffenheim or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1899 Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
1899 Hoffenheim
0
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Paderborn 07?
From 1 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 67%, SC Paderborn 07 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 48% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 48%; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent matches and 43% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 48% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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