1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 46%, yet in-form SC Freiburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees SC Freiburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 6W 1D 3L at PreZero Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — 1899 Hoffenheim are significantly better at PreZero Arena than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Freiburg are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour SC Freiburg, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 2–3 with SC Freiburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 80% and SC Freiburg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 74% | SC Freiburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.229 / defence 1.399 | SC Freiburg attack 0.759 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.486. Data: 46 1899 Hoffenheim games / 46 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 46% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 29%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | SC Freiburg 3.45. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 90% | SC Freiburg 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 46% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.00 / SC Freiburg 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.229 / def 1.399 | SC Freiburg attack 0.759 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.486 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.58
SC Freiburg xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 46% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
Record (6 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 4W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.23) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
46%
2.17
25%
3.98
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.58
1.58
SC Freiburg xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
4%
25.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.58 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 16W 10D 20L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 17W 11D 18L from 46 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.26 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 8W 3D 12L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.33 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 17W 11D 18L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or SC Freiburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.39 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.17 PPG.
Have 1899 Hoffenheim or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1899 Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 87%, SC Freiburg 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 65% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 39%; SC Freiburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 39% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 65% of SC Freiburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 13, as 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.58 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.23 / defence 1.40 against SC Freiburg attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 46% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 29%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 74%, SC Freiburg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.