1899 Hoffenheim 2-4 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 33 as 1899 Hoffenheim welcome Bayer Leverkusen to PreZero Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1899 Hoffenheim at PreZero Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayer Leverkusen — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 64% and Bayer Leverkusen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 67% | Bayer Leverkusen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.42 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.026 / defence 1.075 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.341 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.371. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 1899 Hoffenheim games / 66 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 26% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 49%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.04. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 26% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.42 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.026 / def 1.075 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.341 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Bayer Leverkusen xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 26% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (1 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 0W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 0W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
26%
3.81
24%
4.09
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.39
1.98
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
14%
7.21
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
4%
27.49
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.98 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 66 games, going 24W 17D 25L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.67 PPG from 66 outings (31W 17D 18L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.35 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 16W 7D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.58 points per game from 33 outings (14W 10D 9L).
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.92 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 24W 17D 25L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 31W 17D 18L in their last 66 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.67 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: 1899 Hoffenheim have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 64%, Bayer Leverkusen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 54% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 58% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 54% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-4 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.42 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.98 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.34 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 26% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 49%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.35 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.