1. FC Köln 1-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees RB Leipzig travel to RheinEnergieStadion to take on 1. FC Köln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at RheinEnergieStadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, 1. FC Köln have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1. FC Köln, 0 for RB Leipzig and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2021, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
1. FC Köln trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RB Leipzig trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 63% versus RB Leipzig 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 60% | RB Leipzig 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.50 xG and RB Leipzig 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.997 / defence 1.063 | RB Leipzig attack 0.919 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.255. Data: 38 1. FC Köln games / 38 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 40% | Draw 33% | RB Leipzig 27%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | RB Leipzig 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 70% | RB Leipzig 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 40% | Draw 33% | RB Leipzig 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.50 / RB Leipzig 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.997 / def 1.063 | RB Leipzig attack 0.919 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.23
RB Leipzig xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig kick off?
1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig?
1. FC Köln 1 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig part of?
1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 40% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 1 | RB Leipzig 0W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 1.00x the league average against RB Leipzig's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.07
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.73
1.23
RB Leipzig xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.23 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Köln's recent record stands at 11W 10D 17L from 38 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 10L across 38 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Köln have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 8W 4D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.71 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.05 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.47 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when RB Leipzig won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
4
Draws
5
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 68%, RB Leipzig 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (1. FC Köln) and 53% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 37%; 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of 1. FC Köln's games and 47% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 53% of RB Leipzig's.
Do 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 5, as 1. FC Köln and RB Leipzig drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.50 xG and RB Leipzig 1.23 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against RB Leipzig attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 40% | Draw 33% | RB Leipzig 27%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 60%, RB Leipzig 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.