1. FC Köln 3-4 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Eintracht Frankfurt at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 5W 3D 2L at RheinEnergieStadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (1. FC Köln) versus 1.70 (Eintracht Frankfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with 1. FC Köln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 57% and Eintracht Frankfurt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 54% | Eintracht Frankfurt 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 2.07 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.097 / defence 1.075 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.251 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.495. Eintracht Frankfurt have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 1. FC Köln games / 44 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 39%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.44 | Draw 4.76 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 76% | xG 1. FC Köln 2.07 / Eintracht Frankfurt 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.097 / def 1.075 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.251 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
76%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
1. FC Köln 3 - 4 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 41% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 39% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (8 meetings): 1. FC Köln 3W | Draws 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (1.10) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
41%
2.45
21%
4.87
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
4.08
2.01
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.11
Clean Sheet
13%
7.47
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
5%
18.31
5%
20.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 2.01 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 22W 9D 13L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 22W 11D 11L from 44 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.70 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 9W 7D 5L from 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 22W 9D 13L in their last 44 games (1.70 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 22W 11D 11L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.81 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when 1. FC Köln won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Köln
5
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 67%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Köln and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1. FC Köln's games and 76% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Frankfurt defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat 1. FC Köln 3-4 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 2.07 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.01 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 2.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.10 / defence 1.07 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.25 / defence 1.13, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 39%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.70 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.