Werder Bremen 3-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host Hansa Rostock at wohninvest WESERSTADION in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 1W 3D 6L at wohninvest WESERSTADION — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.75. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Werder Bremen 0.60 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 75% and Hansa Rostock 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 50% | Hansa Rostock 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.04 xG and Hansa Rostock 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.871 / defence 1.480 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.048 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.312. Data: 4 Werder Bremen games / 4 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 16% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 57%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | Hansa Rostock 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Hansa Rostock (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | Hansa Rostock 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 16% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Werder Bremen 1.04 / Hansa Rostock 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.871 / def 1.480 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.048 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Hansa Rostock xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock?
Werder Bremen 3 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 16% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Werder Bremen and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and Hansa Rostock in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.87x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
16%
6.37
27%
3.73
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.07
2.04
Hansa Rostock xG
6.37
16%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
13%
7.65
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
2%
48.74
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 2.04 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.25 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Hansa Rostock in 75%.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
0
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Hansa Rostock?
From 2 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Hansa Rostock have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2022, when Hansa Rostock 1-2 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Hansa Rostock?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Werder Bremen at 75%, Hansa Rostock at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Werder Bremen and 75% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Werder Bremen's games and 75% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Werder Bremen's matches and 75% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Werder Bremen and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.04 xG and Hansa Rostock 2.04 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.87 / defence 1.48 against Hansa Rostock attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 16% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 57%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 50%, Hansa Rostock 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.25 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.