Werder Bremen 1-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
wohninvest WESERSTADION plays host to Werder Bremen versus FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at wohninvest WESERSTADION this season.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FC St. Pauli are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 36% versus FC St. Pauli 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 73% | FC St. Pauli 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.54 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.027 / defence 1.123 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.079 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.321. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Werder Bremen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Werder Bremen games / 11 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 34% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 37%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | FC St. Pauli 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 50% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 34% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Werder Bremen 1.54 / FC St. Pauli 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.027 / def 1.123 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.079 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.60
FC St. Pauli xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Werder Bremen 1 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 34% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 1.03x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (1.08x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.40
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.14
1.60
FC St. Pauli xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
7%
14.63
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.60 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 4W 3D 4L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 8W 1D 2L from 11 games, 2.27 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.45 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; FC St. Pauli in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.40 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 40%, FC St. Pauli 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Werder Bremen and 60% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC St. Pauli in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 60% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Werder Bremen's matches and 60% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 12, as Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.54 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.60 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.08 / defence 1.27, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 34% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 37%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 73%, FC St. Pauli 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.