SV Sandhausen 1-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 30 as SV Sandhausen welcome FC St. Pauli to BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Sandhausen have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, SV Sandhausen have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC St. Pauli's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (SV Sandhausen) versus 1.50 (FC St. Pauli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SV Sandhausen, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Sandhausen in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 62% and FC St. Pauli 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 48% | FC St. Pauli 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.34 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.883 / defence 1.176 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.872 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.376. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing SV Sandhausen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 SV Sandhausen games / 29 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 34% | Draw 30% | FC St. Pauli 37%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | FC St. Pauli 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 70% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 34% | Draw 30% | FC St. Pauli 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.34 / FC St. Pauli 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.883 / def 1.176 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.872 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FC St. Pauli xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli?
SV Sandhausen 1 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 34% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli?
Record (1 meetings): SV Sandhausen 0W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Sandhausen's attack rating (0.88) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SV Sandhausen's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
34%
2.98
30%
3.36
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.75
1.41
FC St. Pauli xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.41 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Sandhausen's recent record stands at 8W 10D 11L from 29 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 7L across 29 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Sandhausen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Sandhausen have managed 3W 4D 7L from 14 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 5W 3D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
The Goals Picture
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.86 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC St. Pauli in 62%.
Last 29 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Current Season
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 15W 7D 7L in their last 29 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.93 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Sandhausen's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
2
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when SV Sandhausen 0-5 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 57%, FC St. Pauli 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Sandhausen) and 64% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 36% of games; FC St. Pauli in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SV Sandhausen's games and 71% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SV Sandhausen's matches and 64% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 30, as SV Sandhausen and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.34 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.41 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.87 / defence 1.29, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 34% | Draw 30% | FC St. Pauli 37%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 48%, FC St. Pauli 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.